Fire Chief, Industry Consultant · Published November 07, 2026
The California Department of Insurance said this week that the state's insurer of last resort grew far more slowly this summer than at any point in the past four years. Between July and September 2026, the FAIR Plan added only 2,200 new policies, the department reported. For homeowners in Greater Los Angeles who are on the FAIR Plan or shopping for coverage, it is encouraging news with some important caveats.
What the new data shows
The department's announcement describes the <a href="../insurance/california-fair-plan">FAIR Plan</a> slowdown as the steepest decline in growth in four years. It also says insurer rate filings under review have dropped to their lowest level in decades, and that review timelines have improved. The department counts twelve homeowners insurance companies, including seven of the ten largest, as having committed to staying and growing in California.
Independent researchers at Stanford's Climate and Energy Policy Program looked at the plan's own data through September 30, 2026. They found the plan insured about 665,000 homes, with total exposure of about $715 billion. Exposure grew about 11% between September 2025 and September 2026, compared with about 50% the year before. The number of policies was roughly the same in September as it was in June.
For context, the Department of Insurance said in May that the plan had been adding 35,000 to 50,000 policies a quarter from 2024 through September 2025. Commissioner Ricardo Lara said in this week's release that the department is seeing "real measurable progress" toward a stable market.
Why the numbers are still debated
The Stanford team says it is too early to tell whether the slowdown reflects more private insurers writing policies. They also point out that slower growth does not mean a smaller plan: it still insures nearly three times as many homes as it did in 2021. Growth has also been faster outside areas the state classifies as distressed. Those non-distressed areas now account for 55% of FAIR Plan policies.
Consumer advocates have been more cautious. In September, CalMatters reported that Consumer Watchdog counted about 12,189 new-policy commitments since the state's Sustainable Insurance Strategy took effect, a number the group called minuscule next to the size of the FAIR Plan. CalMatters also noted the state had not yet released how many new policies insurers have actually written.
The plan's own forecast is modest. Its 2026 to 2029 strategic plan projects a small net decline of 4,047 policies in force for fiscal year 2027, after a projected gain of 57,060 in fiscal 2026.
What has not changed
A slowdown does not lower anyone's bill. The FAIR Plan's average rate increase of 29.1% took effect October 15, 2026, for policies renewing on or after that date, according to KQED. Your own renewal may differ from the average, and your carrier sets final pricing.
The FAIR Plan also remains a basic fire policy rather than a full homeowners policy. Many owners on it pair it with a separate policy for liability and other perils. Our comparison of the FAIR Plan and a standard policy explains the gaps.
A note for Lake Tahoe and Nevada readers
Nevada has no FAIR Plan. Since January 1, 2026, Nevada law has allowed insurers to exclude wildfire from a homeowners policy or to sell wildfire-only coverage, according to Sierra Nevada Ally. That makes reading your policy more important than watching California statistics. Our Nevada wildfire exclusion guide covers what to check, and the Nevada and Lake Tahoe insurance page has more background.
What this means for your home
The signal for homeowners is that the private market is open a little wider than it was a year ago, but it is still selective. A hardened, well-documented home is the easiest kind for a carrier to say yes to. These steps can help.
- Ask your agent or broker to re-quote. If you are on the FAIR Plan, ask a licensed agent whether any of the participating carriers will write your home now. Appetite varies by address, so a no last year may not be a no today.
- Learn the discount rules. California's Safer from Wildfires framework lets carriers recognize mitigation. Ask each carrier exactly which measures it credits and what documentation it wants. Do not assume a specific saving: your carrier sets final pricing.
- Do the free, high-value work first. Clear the first five feet around the house, keep gutters and roof valleys free of debris, and keep your defensible space current. Our defensible space zones guide walks through each zone.
- Harden the weak points embers use. Vents, gutters, windows and eaves are common ember entry points. See vents and gutters and window laminates for how those upgrades work.
- Document everything. Keep dated photos, invoices and any inspection reports. Consider the Wildfire Prepared Home designation, and use the Find Savings tool to see which programs may apply.
- Get an independent look. A free home hardening assessment can show where your home stands. You can also email info@wetlinedefense.com. Wetline is not an insurance agent, so your carrier or broker decides eligibility and pricing.
Frequently asked questions
Does a slower-growing FAIR Plan mean my premium will drop?
Not directly. The 29.1% average increase took effect October 15 for renewing policies, and slower enrollment growth does not reverse it. Your carrier sets final pricing, so ask your agent how your own renewal was calculated.
Should I leave the FAIR Plan now?
Only if a standard policy gives you equal or better coverage at a price you can carry. Compare the perils covered, the limits and the exclusions, not just the premium. A licensed agent or broker can run that comparison for your address.
Does home hardening help me get a standard policy?
It can improve how your home looks to an underwriter, and some carriers offer mitigation discounts. Requirements and credits differ by company, so ask each one which measures count. Save your documentation either way.
Sources
- More options for homeowners coverage on multiple fronts according to new California Insurance Department data (Insurance News Net)
- FAIR Plan Update: New Data Through September 2026 (Stanford CEPP)
- Momentum continues to build under Sustainable Insurance Strategy (California Department of Insurance, May 1, 2026)
- Insurers say they're starting to write new California homeowner policies, but how many? (CalMatters)
- California FAIR Plan Announces 29.1% Rate Hike for Homeowners This Fall (KQED)
- California FAIR Plan Association Strategic Plan 2026-2029
- How Northern Nevadans can protect their homes from wildfire (Sierra Nevada Ally)
This article is general information, not insurance or legal advice. Your carrier sets final pricing and eligibility.
By Will Spyrison